Energy Transition
Accelerating a Win-Win Energy Transition for All

Theory of Change features contributions and support from these organizations:

Download
Theory of Change for 
International Energy Transition

Here, you can download the Summary of the Theory of Change developed by our think tank network, to accelerate implementation of the international transition away from fossil fuels. This is a roadmap, outlining how to achieve the well below 2 °C target of the Paris Agreement, while making faster progress on multiple UN SDGs, with benefit to all stakeholders across the energy value chain.

A full version with appendix, to substantiate policy with data-based transition roadmaps, is available upon request. If you would like to explore connecting this theory to the transition plan of your organization or schedule a 30-minute call with us for elaboration, please fill out the form on this page.

This implementation-oriented Theory of Change was developed for presentation at the intergovernmental First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels, which took place Santa Marta, Colombia, on 24-29 April 2026. From May 2026 onwards, we are connecting with various parties in governments, business, academia and civil society to explore options for collaboration and implementation.

Contributors & Supporters
As of April 2026, individuals at the following organizations have supported or contributed to this Theory of Change:

• United Nations Global Compact - Network Netherlands (UNGC-NL)
• United Nations Global Compact - Network United Kingdom
• (UNGC-UK)
• Carbon Tracker (UK-based think tank in energy finance)
• Climate Reality Leaders
• Ørsted (Denmark's national energy company)
• Employees for our Future

Tipping point: 50% renewables in worldwide energy mix & "well below 2 °C" target of Paris Agreement

The Theory of Change is based on interdisciplinary science and  systems thinking, taking into account the entire value chain of worldwide energy systems. It works towards the clear result of a tipping point of 50% renewable energy in the worldwide energy mix. Currently, <25% of this mix is generated by renewables.

This is achieved through two main change mechanisms:

• Innovation Accelerators for implementation to upscale needed infrastructure, both in industrialized and emerging economies
• Intra-transitions of energy companies

Win-win for all stakeholders

Our Theory of Change features implementation pathways that benefit all affected players worldwide, including:

• Nature
• Climate
• People currently working in the energy industry
• People working in mining industries to extract minerals and metals needed for electrification
• Consumers
• Businesses
• Energy companies